September Keys to the Coast: Buyer Demand Rises as Southwest Florida Inventory Falls
Keys to the Coast · September 2026
Buyer Demand Is Rising While Southwest Florida Inventory Keeps Falling
This Southwest Florida real estate market update covers July’s stronger year-over-year activity, falling inventory and a market that is tightening without returning to the frenzy of the pandemic years.
A Note from Justin
September in Southwest Florida
September always feels like a transition month in Southwest Florida. Summer is winding down, seasonal buyers are beginning to look ahead, and we are moving into the most active stretch of hurricane season.
At the same time, the housing market is sending a signal that is becoming harder to ignore: buyers are active, but the number of homes available to them continues to shrink. July closed sales and pending sales were both up by double digits from last year, median pricing moved higher, and active single-family inventory in the Cape Coral and Fort Myers market fell another 18%.
That does not mean every home is selling quickly or that sellers can name any price they want. Buyers are still paying close attention to insurance, flood exposure, condition, HOA costs and total monthly payment. But it does mean the window of seemingly endless inventory may be starting to close.
This month, I am also heading to Denver for Sell It ’26 as SERHANT. launches its newest market in Colorado. Closer to home, ONE Fort Myers continues rising over the riverfront, Florida voters have a major property-tax proposal coming in November, and Southwest Florida is preparing for the heart of storm season. There is a lot to cover, so let’s get into it.
The Numbers
July 2026 Market Snapshot
Cape Coral and Fort Myers MSA · Single-family homes
Closed Sales
1,331
↑ 13% year over year
Median Sale Price
$385,000
↑ 2.7% year over year
Active Inventory
6,835
↓ 18% year over year
Dollar Volume
$709M
↑ 25% year over year
New Listings
1,564
↑ 1% year over year
New Pending Sales
1,365
↑ 14% year over year
The Market Is Tightening, but It Is Not a Frenzy
The strongest number in July was not price growth. It was the combination of buyer activity and shrinking supply. Pending sales increased 14% from a year ago, closed sales rose 13%, and total dollar volume climbed 25%. At the same time, active inventory was down 18%.
Inventory also fell from 7,195 homes in June to 6,835 in July, with 360 fewer active homes, or another 5% reduction in a single month. The broader Florida Gulf Coast MLS data still shows a normal summer-to-fall slowdown, but supply is contracting faster than demand is disappearing.
For Sellers
The market is becoming more supportive, but pricing and preparation still determine which homes benefit. Launch correctly, remove uncertainty and make the value obvious from the first showing.
For Buyers
Buyers still have leverage on homes that have been sitting or need work. But waiting for a flood of new inventory may not create the advantage many expect. The right terms may matter more than waiting for more choices.
Source: Florida Realtors® SunStats and Florida Gulf Coast MLS, July 2026.
Local Lens
Cape Coral and Fort Myers Beach
Cape Coral
The median price rose to $395,509 as active inventory and new listings declined. Buyers remain selective, but the reduction in available homes is worth watching as we move toward season.
Fort Myers Beach
With only eight closed sales, monthly figures can move dramatically. Condition, elevation, rental potential, location and post-storm construction quality matter more here than one median-price number.
Florida Property Taxes
Amendment 3 Could Put a December 31 Deadline on Buyer Timing
If Amendment 3 passes, buyers who want the expanded savings would need to be permanent Florida residents by December 31, 2026, not simply own a home here by that date.
Florida voters will decide Amendment 3 during the November 3, 2026 general election. If approved by at least 60% of voters, the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes would increase to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, then adjust for inflation beginning in 2029.
The timing detail matters. A person who establishes Florida residency after December 31, 2026 would generally receive the existing exemption first and wait five years before becoming eligible for the expanded benefit, subject to limited future exceptions. Using Florida TaxWatch’s statewide average non-school millage rate, a qualifying homesteaded property assessed above $250,000 could save approximately $1,035 in 2027 and $2,085 in 2028. Actual savings would vary.
This does not mean someone should rush into the wrong home. It does mean buyers who already plan to make Florida their primary residence should understand the potential cost of waiting. The amendment is not yet law, school taxes would not receive the expanded exemption, and residency eligibility should be reviewed with the property appraiser, a tax professional or an attorney.
Read the Amendment 3 OverviewGeneral information only; not legal, tax or financial advice.
Across the SERHANT. Network
Colorado Launch and Sell It ’26
SERHANT. officially launched in Colorado in August, bringing 11 founding agents and a group with more than $1 billion in sales production into the Denver market. The expansion brings the company’s media platform and AI-native S.MPLE technology into one of the country’s most important growth markets.
Later this month, I will be in Denver for Sell It ’26: Move Forward, September 24 and 25 at the Seawell Ballroom. The conference is focused on AI, technology, creativity, housing and the future of real estate. I am looking forward to bringing new ideas, stronger connections and better tools back to the clients I serve in Southwest Florida.
Development Update
Residence 1301 Goes Under Contract as ONE Fort Myers Reaches the 13th Floor
ONE Fort Myers has reached two more major milestones: construction is now on the 13th floor, and Residence 1301 is officially under contract.
More than half of the building’s 34 residences are now spoken for, both original penthouses are under contract, and the development has already produced the highest condo sale in downtown Fort Myers history. It was a transaction I was proud to represent.
13th Floor
Current construction milestone
50%+
Of the building now sold
1301
Now officially under contract
At this height, ONE Fort Myers is becoming a visible part of the downtown skyline, and its riverfront position and view corridors are easier to appreciate with every floor. With only two residences per floor, every new contract removes a specific floor, plan, elevation and view that cannot be duplicated elsewhere in the building.
Additional price increases are anticipated as construction moves toward the roof. Because availability and pricing are changing quickly, I am not publishing a static unit list. Reach out directly for the current availability sheet, floor plans and pricing.
Justin’s Listings
Featured Properties
Fort Myers · Direct Riverfront
10070 San Pablo Drive
$2,995,000
A reimagined riverfront residence with 80 feet of frontage, a 120-foot dock, boat lift, negative-edge pool and extensive resilience improvements.
Explore the Property →
Lehigh Acres · Investment
909/911 Homestead Road S
$505,000
A 2024 side-by-side duplex with income already in place and a vacant second residence ready to occupy or lease.
Explore the Property →
Fort Myers · Canal Front
849 Sea Urchin Circle
$419,500
A 2024 five-bedroom home on an oversized canal-front lot with impact windows, a two-car garage and no HOA.
Explore the Property →
Miromar Lakes · Seasonal Rental
17888 Modena Road
$10,000 / Month
An updated pool home with pond and golf views, renovated kitchen, southwest sunset exposure and resort amenities.
Explore the Rental →Around the Coast and Beyond
What’s Happening This September
September 4 · 6:00 to 9:00 p.m.
Tiki Cocktail Showdown
A waterfront cocktail competition at Slipaway Food Truck Park & Marina.
September 10 to 13
Roar Offshore
Offshore powerboat racing returns to Fort Myers Beach with multiple days of activity.
September 18 to 27
Island Hopper Songwriter Fest
Singer-songwriters perform across Captiva, Cape Coral, downtown Fort Myers and Fort Myers Beach.
Select Nights All Month · Orlando
Halloween Horror Nights
Universal Orlando’s signature after-dark Halloween event runs on select nights throughout September.
Mondays Through September 28
Makers Monday
Browse local art and handmade goods at Bell Tower in Fort Myers.
Justin’s List
8 Hurricane Tips for the Heart of Storm Season
Southwest Florida’s peak hurricane window is not the time to discover that an important document, policy detail or piece of equipment is missing.
01 · Know Your Zone
Confirm your evacuation zone and identify more than one route before a warning is issued.
02 · Review Insurance Now
Save policy numbers, deductibles and claim contacts. Remember that flood damage usually requires separate coverage.
03 · Document the Home
Photograph each room, valuable belongings, the roof, exterior walls, windows, mechanical systems and storm protection.
04 · Test Storm Protection
Confirm that shutters, panels, impact systems and garage-door bracing work and that every fastener is accessible.
05 · Build Two Supply Kits
Keep one shelter-in-place kit and one portable evacuation kit with food, water, medicine, lights, batteries and chargers.
06 · Plan for Power Loss
Charge power banks, test generators outdoors and confirm safe fuel storage. Never run a generator inside a garage or lanai.
07 · Secure the Exterior
Bring in patio furniture, grills, planters and decorations, and trim loose branches before weather deteriorates.
08 · Make a Family Plan
Choose a meeting point, an out-of-area contact and a plan for pets, prescriptions, older relatives and anyone needing assistance.
Follow official guidance from local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center. Evacuate when directed.
Make Your Next Move with Clarity
Let’s Build the Right Southwest Florida Strategy
Whether you are buying, selling, relocating, investing or exploring ONE Fort Myers, I will help you understand the numbers and build a plan around your goals.
Justin Jamison · SERHANT. · (239) 788-3986 · justin.jamison@serhant.com
