October Keys to the Coast: Three Straight Months of Price Gains Meet 7% Rates
Keys to the Coast · October 2026
Three Straight Months of Price Gains Meet 7% Rates
August brought the Cape Coral-Fort Myers market its third straight month of year-over-year price gains and the tightest inventory in a year, just as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level since 2023. Here is what that combination actually means.
A Note from Justin
October in Southwest Florida
October is when Southwest Florida starts to feel the turn toward season. Snowbirds are booking flights, seasonal rentals are filling, and conversations about buying and selling get more serious. If you have been waiting for a sign to start the conversation, this is the month the market starts listening.
The signal right now is mixed, but useful. Single-family prices in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area just posted year-over-year gains for the third month in a row. Homes went under contract faster, closed sales increased, and active inventory fell more than 15% from last year. At the same time, the 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.3%, its highest level in almost three years.
That combination, firming prices plus expensive money, is the whole story this month. Sellers have a more supportive market than they did in the spring. Buyers have more negotiating room than the price trend suggests. The details below show where each side actually stands.
Closer to home, ONE Fort Myers just poured its 15th floor and is now rising at a floor a week, my San Pablo riverfront listing returns to the market in the coming weeks at $2.79M, and I have four new listings hitting in the next couple of weeks. Plenty to cover, so let us get into it.
The Numbers
August 2026 Market Snapshot
Cape Coral and Fort Myers MSA · Single-family homes
Closed Sales
1,218
↑ 2.8% year over year
Median Sale Price
$380,000
↑ 2.7% year over year
Active Inventory
6,512
↓ 15.5% year over year
Dollar Volume
$623.6M
↑ 10.3% year over year
New Listings
1,610
↑ 8.1% year over year
New Pending Sales
1,296
↓ 3.4% year over year
Firming Prices, Tightening Supply, One Big Headwind
Three months of rising prices is a trend, not a blip. Sellers received 94.7% of their original list price in August, up from 93.3% a year ago, and the median time to contract fell to 60 days. Months of supply sits at 5.2, down from 6.9 last August. The market is absorbing what is listed.
The wrinkle: new listings rose 8.1% while new pending sales slipped 3.4%. Fresh supply is arriving just as higher rates make buyers more selective. Nearly 30% of August closings were cash, which tells you who is least affected by the rate environment. Everyone else is negotiating harder, and about one in five listings nationally is now taking a price cut.
For Sellers
The market is more supportive than it was in the spring, but pricing discipline still decides who benefits. Well-priced homes are going under contract in 60 days and keeping nearly 95% of asking. Overpriced homes are sitting while fresh competition arrives weekly.
For Buyers
Rates are the tax on waiting, but selection and negotiating room are the reward for acting. Price cuts are rising, sellers are entertaining terms they would not have considered in the spring, and the right home at the right number still beats waiting for a rate that may not come.
Source: Florida Realtors® SunStats, August 2026.
Local Lens
A Two-Speed Market
Naples Luxury Cools
The Naples single-family median eased to $760,000, down about 1% from last year. At the top of the market, buyers have the most leverage they have had in years. Well-positioned luxury sellers are still moving homes, but aspirational pricing is getting punished.
Takeaway: luxury buyers should be writing offers, not waiting.
Condos Split in Two
Cape Coral condo prices fell 2.2% even as condo sales jumped. Buyers are active, but they are pricing in reserve funding and special assessment risk since Florida’s post-Surfside reserve laws. Buildings with clean financials and funded reserves are separating from the rest fast.
Takeaway: condo sellers need their reserve story ready before listing.
Borrowing Costs
7.3% Is the New Normal, for Now
The 30-year fixed rate hit 7.3% in late September, its highest level since November 2023, after six straight weeks of increases.
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average at 7.03%, and mortgage applications fell to their slowest pace since 2025. Purchase applications are down 14% from a year ago. This is not a blip. With inflation pressure lingering, planning around 7% is the responsible move.
Here is the honest math for Southwest Florida: higher rates cut buying power, full stop. But they also cut your competition. Sellers facing fewer offers are cutting prices, covering closing costs, and negotiating repairs. The buyers winning right now are the ones who secure the right home and the right terms, then revisit the rate later if the market gives them the chance.
One more signal worth watching: adjustable-rate mortgages just hit their highest share of applications since October 2025. When buyers start reaching for ARMs, it tells you affordability is stretched and creativity matters. Talk to a lender you trust about every option before you assume you are priced out.
Market context only; not financial advice. Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, September 2026.
Across the SERHANT. Network
Back from Denver: Sell It ’26 and the S.MPLE 2.0 Rollout
Last week I was in Denver for Sell It ’26: Move Forward, two days at the Seawell Ballroom with keynotes from Ryan Serhant and Tony Hawk, closing with the private launch celebration for SERHANT. Colorado at Meow Wolf. The energy was real, but the biggest news was technological.
SERHANT. unveiled S.MPLE 2.0, the next generation of the brokerage’s AI platform, and it starts rolling out to agents on October 5, expanding across company markets through the fourth quarter. The headline feature is an AI assistant called Dot, described as an AI chief of staff. Instead of waiting for an agent to type a prompt, it works across the agent’s calendar, email, CRM and transaction data to decide what needs attention and start executing.
“Chatbots give you answers, but S.MPLE 2.0 gives you outcomes.” — Ryan Serhant
In practice, that means one objective, like preparing for a listing appointment, gets broken into steps and handed to specialized AI agents that handle market research, comparable analysis, pricing, presentation building, branding and compliance checks. Compliance screening runs inside the process, against standards including the Fair Housing Act and RESPA, rather than as an afterthought.
The numbers behind the platform are hard to ignore: since its 2024 launch, S.MPLE has completed more than 54,000 requests for over 2,000 active agents, returned nearly 28,000 hours of administrative work, and agents who adopted it grew their commission income by an average of 144% year over year compared with their prior firm. For my clients, the translation is simple: faster pricing analysis, sharper marketing, tighter follow-up and compliance-checked materials on every listing.
Development Update
15th Floor Poured as ONE Fort Myers Builds Toward Its Year-End Roof
ONE Fort Myers just hit two more milestones: Residence 1301 is officially under contract, and crews just poured the 15th floor. The building is now rising at a pace of one floor per week.
At this pace, the roof will be poured by the end of the year, and the project remains on track to deliver by the end of 2027. Fully furnished units should be ready to tour by the end of Q1 next year, which is when seeing the views in person becomes a completely different experience.
15th Floor
Just poured
1 Floor / Week
Current construction pace
End of 2027
Delivery target
With only two residences per floor, every contract removes a specific floor, plan, elevation and view that cannot be duplicated elsewhere in the building. Additional price increases are anticipated as construction moves toward the roof.
Because availability and pricing are changing quickly, I am not publishing a static unit list. Reach out directly for the current availability sheet, floor plans and pricing.
Justin’s Listings
Featured Properties
Downtown Fort Myers · Full-Floor Penthouse
2583 1st St #1701 · ONE Fort Myers
$4,107,000
A full-floor penthouse with nearly 4,800 square feet, 3 bedrooms plus a dedicated office, private elevator and panoramic river views. Pre-construction, estimated completion 2027.
Request Details →
Fort Myers · Direct Riverfront · Coming Back Soon
10070 San Pablo Drive
$2.79M · Returning to market in the coming weeks
A reimagined riverfront residence with 80 feet of frontage, a 120-foot dock, boat lift, negative-edge pool and extensive resilience improvements.
Explore the Property →
Lehigh Acres · Investment
909/911 Homestead Road S
$499,000
A 2024 side-by-side duplex with income already in place and a vacant second residence ready to occupy or lease.
Explore the Property →
Fort Myers · Canal Front
849 Sea Urchin Circle
$419,500
A 2024 five-bedroom home on an oversized canal-front lot with impact windows, a two-car garage and no HOA.
Explore the Property →Coming Soon · Next Two Weeks
Four New Listings Landing Shortly
Early access available
1127 S Town and River Dr · 13849 Pine Lodge · 4635 Saint Croix Ln · 14039 Oviedo Pl. Details drop in the next couple of weeks. Reach out now for first look before they hit the market.
Text for Early Access →Around the Coast and Beyond
What’s Happening This October
October 3 · 8:30 a.m.
Running Scared 5K Pumpkin Challenge
A Halloween-themed 5K on the FGCU campus in Fort Myers.
October 10 · 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.
Barktober Fest
Pet costume contest, music and photo ops at Gulf Coast Town Center, benefiting the Gulf Coast Humane Society.
October 16–18 & 23–25
Cape Coral Oktoberfest
Two weekends of German food, beer, music and dancing at the German American Social Club.
October 24 · 8:30 p.m.
Cake at Caloosa Sound
The genre-defining rock band plays the Caloosa Sound Amphitheater in downtown Fort Myers.
October 25 · 7:30 p.m.
Naples Philharmonic Plays “Superman”
The John Williams score performed live with the film at the Naples International Film Festival, Artis—Naples.
October 29 · 5:00 to 9:00 p.m.
United Way Bartender Battle
Halloween-themed fundraiser with food and live music at Bay Street Yard in Fort Myers. Free admission, costumes encouraged.
October 29 · 8:00 p.m.
Kylie Morgan
The country singer plays The Ranch Concert Hall in Fort Myers.
October 30 · 6:00 & 8:00 p.m.
Gulf Coast Symphony Plays “Harry Potter”
The full orchestra takes on the wizarding world at the Music & Arts Community Center in Fort Myers.
October 31 · 8:00 p.m.
Gavin Adcock
The Georgia country singer closes out the month at Hertz Arena in Estero.
Justin’s List
5 Ways to Get Your Home Season-Ready Before the Winter Buyers Arrive
Seasonal buyers start touring in earnest over the next 60 days. The homes that show best are the ones whose owners spent October on the unglamorous stuff.
01 · Service the AC
It will run hard with a house full of holiday guests. A tune-up now beats a breakdown in December, and buyers ask about system age.
02 · Refresh the Exterior
Pressure wash, fresh mulch, trimmed palms. The first showing happens at the curb, and the first photo buyers see is the front elevation.
03 · Declutter for Showings
Seasonal buyers tour fast and compare hard. Closets, counters and garages should breathe. If it has not been used in a year, box it.
04 · Get Insurance Docs in Order
Wind mitigation, flood elevation certificate, policy declarations. Buyers now ask about insurance earlier than almost anything else.
05 · Fix the Small Things
Caulk, grout, door handles, scuff marks. Small flaws invite big discounts in negotiation. An afternoon of touch-ups pays for itself.
Make Your Next Move with Clarity
Let’s Build the Right Southwest Florida Strategy
Whether you are buying, selling, relocating, investing or exploring ONE Fort Myers, I will help you understand the numbers and build a plan around your goals.
Justin Jamison · SERHANT. · (239) 788-3986 · justin.jamison@serhant.com
